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Realtors warn against excessive positivity

National house-price growth in 2018 is anticipated to be "slightly better" than 2017's average, which FNB's John Loos says was 3.7%..

Having said this though, it is only a mild expected strengthening to "perhaps nearer to 5% price growth", still translating into mild "real" house price decline.

Loos says: "By this it is meant that average house-price growth is expected to be slightly below consumer price inflation for 2018.

"Real house price decline is expected to reflect still- sluggish demand, coupled with good supply on the market and little in the way of stock constraints for estate agents."

The slightly better nominal house price growth expectation, Loos says, is based on a slightly better forecast economic growth rate for 2018, compared to the country's expected 0.7% for 2017 as a whole. A rising SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator in recent months suggests this growth improvement could occur.

However, an expected improvement in economic growth to just above 1% will "not set the world on fire exactly", hence the expected marginal strengthening at best.

Read more: Realtors warn against excessive positivity

 
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